On May 29th, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s first provincial budget survived a confidence vote with MPP’s voting 65-36 in support of the motion.   Following weeks of negotiations between NDP leader Andrea Horwath and Premier Wynne, a compromise was reached leading the NDP to vote unanimously in support of the budget, unlike last year, when they chose to abstain.  For most following this story as it has progressed, this development comes as no surprise.

Ever since Premier Wynne emerged victorious from the Liberal leadership race in January, taking the reigns from her predecessor Dalton McGuinty, speculation has been rampant that an election might be forced by the opposition parties at any moment.  Additionally, strong reactions from both the PC and NDP caucuses to the near-billion dollar gas plant scandal only served to fuel further election speculation. 

Predictably, PC Leader Tim Hudak and his caucus have been highly critical of the Liberal government, and have been loudly calling for an election for months.  The PC’s maintain that the financial condition of the province is worsening by the day, and that significant changes to government spending are required to right what they see as a severely listing ship.  It is with this in mind that they voted down the throne speech, and announced in advance their intention to vote down the budget.

On the other hand, the NDP has been sending comparatively mixed messages.  While unequivocally condemning the Liberals for their lack of accountability in the gas plant scandal, the NDP nonetheless voted to pass the throne speech. 

Similar to last year, in the days following the throne speech, the NDP submitted a list of demands to the Premier which would need to be met in exchange for NDP budget support.  These included: closing corporate tax loopholes; a new youth jobs program; support for people on welfare; a 5 day wait time guarantee for home health care; and a 15% reduction in auto insurance premiums.  As we saw two weeks ago, the 2013 Provincial Budget addressed all of the NDP’s requests. 

For the better part of two weeks following the budget, however, Horwath remained mum on whether or not her party would in fact support the budget despite achieving everything they asked for.  The situation culminated with an additional list of demands being provided to the Premier by the NDP, including: the addition of a Financial Accountability Officer at Queen’s Park; the addition of an ombudsman to monitor the health care sector; and freezing the Liberal plan to develop H.O.T lanes.

Following a meeting with the Premier, Ms. Horwath announced that several compromises were reached on the additional list of stipulations.  Wynne agreed to the addition of a Financial Accountability Officer, but will not add a health care ombudsman or freeze the plan for the H.O.T lanes.  Instead, the Premier agreed to introduce additional accountability measures across the health care system, and will hold a vote in the legislature on the proposed H.O.T lanes.  Horwath stated unequivocally that the compromise was enough to secure NDP support on the budget and ensure that an election will be avoided for the time being. 
 
Reactions from the Party Leaders

On the budget deal, Premier Wynne said: “I don’t see it as sacrifices.  I see us as having been able to work collaboratively to develop a good enough working relationship that we could find common ground and do what the majority of people in the province were looking for us to do, which is to govern and to make the minority parliament work”.

For her part, Horwath noted that: “It would have been really easy to simply say no and pull the plug and start over again, but New Democrats took the harder path and worked really hard to deliver for Ontarians”.  Furthermore, Horwath took pains to say that the NDP’s support for the Liberal’s provincial budget is a one-off, and not the start of an alliance, stating: “This is a one-step-at-a-time process.  We are proud of the work we were able to do in this budget cycle, but it’s one day at a time when it comes to a minority parliament and that’s how we’re approaching it.”

Opposition Leader Tim Hudak reacted by saying that the arrangement between Wynne and Horwath would only contribute to a steadily increasing provincial deficit.  He was quoted as stating: “We’re paying for this huge growth in government with borrowing and debt – a debt that’s double in 10 years and is on track to tripling”.
 
What’s Next?

On the immediate horizon, the Premier is set to announce the dates of two by-elections prior to a deadline on August 15^th.  One of the by-elections will be held in Windsor-Tecumseh, in the seat vacated by retiring former Finance Minister Dwight Duncan; the other by-election will be held in London West in the seat vacated by resigning former Energy Minister Chris Bentley.  Both seats have historically gone Liberal; however, given the surprise NDP victory in Kitchener’s by-election last year – nothing is certain, and anything can happen.

In terms of the next general election, the only thing that is clear is that it won’t be this spring or summer.  In fact, the earliest possibility for the opposition to force an election will be after the Legislature resumes for the fall session; however, many pundits are already speculating that the likeliest date won’t come until this time next year, after the throne speech or budget.  The problem with these types of prognostications though is that they are, as we have seen time and time again, remarkably unreliable.  This is all to say that it is nearly impossible to tell what will force the next election, or when it will occur; it may not even happen until 2015.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Legislature, and despite the general public’s seeming lack of interest, all three parties will be looking to garner support over the summer and into next year.  What this means is that they will most assuredly be willing to listen, to all organized groups, with open ears.  We may not know when the next provincial election will occur, but we do know, with certainty, that we are entering into one of the most critical lobbying periods in recent memory.