This summer, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s first majority government will reach the halfway mark of its four year mandate.  Although the Conservatives enjoyed relatively smooth sailing during the first year of their term, the past few months have been tempestuous at best.   The latest aggregated polling released by 308.com, updated on May 27^th, has the Liberals enjoying a commanding lead, sitting comfortably at 40%, with the Conservatives at 28%, and the NDP at 21%. 

Much of the Liberal’s rise in the polls can be attributed to the name-recognition and popularity of newly elected leader Justin Trudeau.  Indeed, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 12% as recently as January, and their numbers jumped significantly after Trudeau was chosen leader.  It will be up to Trudeau now to capitalize on his initial bump in the polls by demonstrating his leadership abilities, otherwise the Liberal lead risks evaporating over time.

The change in political fortunes, however, was not simply precipitated by the selection of a new Liberal leader.  There have recently been several well-documented scandals surrounding members of the Conservative caucus, and within the Prime Minister’s own staff; culminating in the dismissal of Senator Mike Duffy from the Conservative caucus, and with the resignation of the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, Nigel Wright. 

For those concerned at the midway melancholy that has seemingly engulfed the Conservative party,  we should remember that we are still two years away from the next election. It is common for any government to experience bumps along the way and the Conservatives realize that there is still plenty of time to right the ship.  The Harper government has been recognized, whether you agree or not with their record, as being competent fiscal managers.  If they are successful in balancing the budget prior to the election as planned, they should see a justifiably boost in the polls as it will only serve to strengthen that image.  In addition, the more distance the government can place between themselves and the recent Senate scandal, the better positioned they will be heading into an election.  Time often heals all.

The Impact of the Senate Scandal

Other than the effect it has had on recent polling, perhaps the largest impact that the Senate scandal may have is in igniting a debate on the nature, composition, and validity of the Senate itself.  The expenses scandal has raised many questions about the accountability and purpose of the government-appointed body and has served to fuel the calls for Senate reform (into an elected body), with some, including NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, even calling for abolition. 

It is still far from clear what the result of these Senate discussions will be; including their potential impact on the 2015 election, as well as on the nature of democracy in this country. It is a conversation that could change Canada’s legislative landscape, and one that is most certainly worth monitoring.

Turning the Page

For the Prime Minister, the beginning of the second half of this mandate could very well be about turning the page on the first half.  It has been speculated in many corners that this summer will bring a major cabinet shuffle, along with an influx of new and youthful Ministers.   Many pundits believe that the Prime Minister may wish to stock his cabinet with fresh young faces who will be able to lead the government into the next election with less baggage than the old guard.

Many of those who may be on the way out to make room are older members who likely will not run in 2015.  Some of the possible departures most frequently mentioned in the media include: Public Safety Minister Vic Toews; Justice Minister Rob Nicholson; Government Whip Gordon O’Connor; Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz; Fisheries Minister Keith Ashfield; Junior Minister Diane Ablonczy; and even Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.  It should be noted, however, that Minister Flaherty’s director of communications has recently insisted that Flaherty will stay on as Finance Minister until 2015, despite his health concerns.

Some of the fresh faces rumoured to be in line for cabinet positions include: Michelle Rempel; Chris Alexander; Candice Bergen; Shelley Glover; and Pierre Poilievre.

What the Future Holds

The general election in 2015 is two years away.  Until then, every decision, every gaffe, every scandal, and every success will be heavily scrutinized by media and public alike.  For now, the Conservative government retains its hold on power, albeit not quite as securely as it did two years ago.  The balance of power at all levels of Canadian government shifts from month to month like a chameleon changes colours. Stay plugged in, remain focused, and keep your eyes peeled; if you blink, you might miss the next change.