This past Thursday, voters in Vaughan and Kitchener-Waterloo took to the polls for a provincial by-election, the second election held in both ridings in less than a year.

In Vaughan, the outcome was more or less as expected, with Liberal Steven Del Duca retaining the seat long-held by Greg Sorbara.  Winning 51% of the votes, Del Duca handily defeated Tory candidate Tony Genco, who finished the night in second place with 33%.   These results are similar to the 2011 election, where Liberal Greg Sorbara defeated PC Tony Genco by a 21% margin.

In the riding of Kitchener-Waterloo, the result was a relatively surprising NDP victory.  Although polling conducted a few days prior to the election hinted at a large NDP lead, many doubted its accuracy given that the riding had been held by former PC MPP Elizabeth Witmer ever since its formation in 1999. NDP candidate Catherine Fife won with 40% of the vote, while PC candidate Tracey Weiler finished in second with 31%.  Liberal Eric Davis finished a distant third with only24% of the vote.   The results of the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election are markedly different from those in 2011, where Witmer defeated Davis by a narrow 7% margin.   The most eyebrow-raising jump however came from the victorious NDP, who increased their vote by 23% from their  third place standing last fall.

Though the results of these two by-elections did not significantly alter Dalton McGuinty’s minority government, they do present several implications with respects to the three parties and their leaders.

Crtics of the Liberal party will argue that both of these by-elections were initiated as a result of the government’s attempt to regain a majority standing in the provincial legislature. In the end, after all of the ballots were counted, the Liberals fell short of their goal by winning only one of the two ridings. As a result, little has changed; the McGuinty government is still in a minority standing with 53 seats versus the combined opposition total of 54.  While several outcomes were possible, the status-quo remains and Ontarians will continue to be governed by a fractious legislature operating under the constant threat of a snap election. Given the electorate’s refusal to provide the Liberals with a majority, some pundits have begun to speculate on whether Dalton McGuinty will lead the party in the next election.  Should he decide, after 14 years as leader and 9 years as Premier, that it is in the party’s best interest to have a fresh face at the helm, a leadership race would likely draw many experienced candidates from the party ranks.  This is a situation that should be closely monitored by all interested parties as it continues to develop.
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If there was a winner from this past week’s by-elections, it was Andrea Horwath and the NDP. They were able to ride a late surge of teacher’s union support to an unanticipated victory in the formerly impregnable Tory stronghold of Kitchener-Waterloo.   While gaining one extra seat does little to bolster their power in the legislature, it does bode extremely well for the NDP in terms of how they are positioned for the next election.  As we have seen federally, the NDP seem to be gaining in popularity across the board as a viable alternative.  Despite their recent upswing in momentum, it remains to be seen whether or not they can translate that support into a governing mandate at either level; however, these results indicate that the NDP are no longer the consensus third party.  With the support of the unions and the weight of tough economic times, they have emerged as a true heavy-weight, and will be aspiring to form government in the next election.

For the PC Party and leader Tim Hudak, these election results were disappointing.  Losing the long-held seat in Kitchener-Waterloo to their opposition counterpart NDP, in addition to their loss in Vaughan, represents a significant setback for both the party and its leader.  Having entered these by-election races as the consensus Liberal-alternative, some now question whether or not the NDP is beginning to take over that mantle.  With the by-elections now over, the party must take some time to re-focus and to think introspectively about its failure to resonate as a viable alternative to the Liberals amongst the electorate. 

While there have been some grumblings about Tim Hudak’s leadership, he is likely to lead the party through at least one more election, given that no formal mechanism exists currently to force a leadership review. Since the ballots were tabulated on Thursday, Hudak has come out aggressively against public sector unions, suggesting that the power and influence they have is ultimately a dangerous reality for Ontario. One can surmise from these remarks that Hudak has begun mapping out his strategy for the next election, looking to establish himself as the only leader willing to make the necessary tough decisions to address the current fiscal realities in the province.

Several weeks ago, we predicted the Liberals would win in Vaughan and lose in Kitchener-Waterloo, resulting in a continued minority government at Queens Park; however, we did not anticipate the NDP win in KW.  When the legislature resumes on Monday, there will be many questions directed to all three party leaders on what the outcomes of Thursday’s by-elections mean to their personal and party brands.. Unless something unexpected happens, look for this government to muddle through until the spring, when the next threat of an election will likely occur over the 2013 budget.