On September 6^th 2012, voters in the ridings of Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan will once again head to the polls. The coming by-elections will fill the two seats vacated by Progressive Conservative Elizabeth Witmer, and Liberal Greg Sorbara respectively.  Witmer, who had held the seat of Kitchener-Waterloo since its creation in 1999, resigned earlier in the year when she accepted an appointment by Premier McGuinty to head the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board.  Sorbara, who has held the seat of Vaughan since its creation in 2007, and who has served for more than 20 years in the legislature, resigned earlier this month in order to devote himself to chairing the Liberal Party’s next provincial election campaign.    The results in these ridings will be important to monitor as their respective outcomes will likely impact the political landscape in Ontario, and potentially the fate of the current Liberal minority government.

Most Recent Polls

Despite the seat being long-held by Witmer and the Tories, a recent Forum poll showed the Liberals with a seven point lead over the PCs in Kitchener-Waterloo.   Taken in May just after Witmer’s resignation, the poll had the Liberals at 39%, the Tories at 32%, and the NDP at 20%.  New polls will undoubtedly be released closer to the election, and only then will consistent results begin to identify a greater trend; however, most political observers agree that the vote will be very close.

In a similar reversal of fortune, a poll taken last week in Vaughan has the PCs with a slight, and surprising lead within what has historically been a Liberal dominated riding at both the federal and provincial level.  The poll had the PCs at 41%, the Liberals at 40%, and the NDP at 15%.   A Federal by-election held in Vaughan in 2010 saw the traditional Liberal stronghold lost to Conservative candidate and now incumbent MP Julian Fantino. It will be interesting to see whether or not history can repeat itself on the provincial stage this September.

The Candidates
In Kitchener-Waterloo, the PC party has nominated Tracey Weiler, an instructor for Wilfred Laurier’s MBA program and community volunteer.  Of the coming election, Weiler recently said: “The people of this riding deserve some straight talk about the mess we’re in – but they also want a vision of hope that our best days are still ahead. That, in essence, is what my candidacy, and the Ontario PC Party under Tim Hudak, are all about”.  Contesting the riding for the Liberals will be recently nominated lawyer and candidate-of-record Eric Davis.  Davis, who lost to Elizabeth Witmer in 2011 noted that: “there were a lot who were Elizabeth Witmer supporters who don’t necessarily share the view of Ontario that Tim Hudak is promising”.  He continued by telling reporters that his campaign will focus on promoting changes the Liberal government has made to health care and education during their mandate.

In Vaughan, the PC party has nominated lawyer and candidate-of-record Tony Genco.  In a release sent out by the party, Genco was quoted as saying: “Prosperity is disappearing across the province with half a million unemployed. The decisions made by this Liberal government over the last nine years have led to record overspending, a record debt and a credit agency downgrade – all of which put everything we care about at risk”.  Contesting the riding for the Liberals will be recently acclaimed candidate, and former head of Greg Sorbara’s election campaign, Steven Del Duca. Del Duca recently said that if elected to represent Vaughan, he would make job creation and easing traffic gridlock his top priorities.

Potential Outcomes
There are three distinct scenarios that could realistically arise as a result of these by-elections.   First, and most likely in our opinion, is the probability that both the Liberals and the PCs retain their respective ridings.  In this scenario, the Liberals retain their slim minority and nothing really changes from where it currently stands.  Another possibility is that the Liberals win both ridings and achieve a slim majority government.  This would allow the McGuinty government to push forward their legislative agenda far more easily, and likely prevent another election until 2015.  In the final scenario, the opposition parties, either PC or NDP, win both ridings resulting in a weakened Liberal hold on the legislature.   Should this happen, the opposition parties might be tempted to push for an early election, if they sense the victories are an indication of widespread increased political support.  At the very least, it would mean that the Liberals would have to make more deals with the opposition in order to have any hope of their legislative agenda being pushed forward.

Historically speaking, by-elections have a significantly lower voter-turnout than general elections.  In this case, with the by-elections taking place in September, the focus of the electorate will likely still be on summer activities and back-to-school preparations, and not on politics.   In order to win local campaigns, the respective parties will need to run effective ground wars to get out their vote. The difference between winning and losing in these closely contested races will likely come down to which party is best able to mobilize a comparatively disengaged local electorate.  Since a by-election is a stand-alone event, it generally lacks the overall guidance (or potential distraction) of a central campaign, and the focus is shifted from the provincial stage as a whole to the grassroots level. Furthermore, without the competitive advantage of an incumbent candidate, the race is much more wide open, and anything can happen.  Stay tuned.