As the legislative schedule winds down, it is rather poetic that the summer break for both the Ontario Legislature and the Federal House occur just after the summer solstice – the longest day of the year.  Both the Federal and Provincial legislatures have recently averted potential election scenarios via marathon voting sessions and back-room deals.   This summer’s break marks the end to a legislative season that has been marked by controversy, partisan gamesmanship, and relative uncertainty at both levels of government.

Federally, the Conservative government avoided a potential non-confidence vote over the budget last week with a marathon voting session that lasted nearly 24 hours.  The opposition parties banded together and proposed hundreds of amendments to the omnibus budget bill which required round-the-clock voting to eventually pass.  In defense of  this attempt to filibuster, the opposition parties argue that the Conservatives were trying to use their majority to ram through a huge amount of legislation, with little discussion, in one massive bill.  The Conservatives counter that the omnibus bill represents the combination of many of their election promises, and that today’s economic uncertainty requires expediency by Canada’s decision makers, not delay.  

Over the past few months since the election of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair as leader of the opposition, the Canadian public has been firmly divided in their support of the government and the official opposition– with the most recent poll showing the Conservatives and the NDP in a statistical tie.  The Liberal party continues to lag behind in the polls and seems to be in a real state of uncertainty.  With Bob Rae’s recent decision to drop out of the party’s leadership race, speculation has started to point towards a possible run by Justin Trudeau.  While Trudeau holds a fair degree of popularity and familiarity due to the electoral successes of his father, it is unclear at this point what his election as leader would mean for the Liberal party, or if he even wants the position.

The Conservatives seem to have largely weathered the storm in their first year with a majority; nonetheless, it is expected that a fairly major cabinet shuffle is coming over the summer months.   Due to various public controversies, the opposition has been calling for the removal of three key ministers:  Bev Oda, Peter MacKay, and Vic Toews, for months.  Many in the media have speculated that at the very least Oda, the Minister of International Co-Operation, and MacKay, the Minister of Defense, will be removed and/or reassigned to other portfolios.   The cabinet shuffle is an important issue with serious ramifications which should be monitored closely over the summer months by any business that is affected by government.

Provincially, the Liberal government avoided a similar non-confidence vote on the budget on the heels of some major last minute back-room dealing with the NDP.  It was assumed that the budget was a fait accompli after a series of long discussions between Premier McGuinty and NDP leader Andrea Horwath resulted in several concessions on behalf of the Liberals, including increased taxation on the rich, and a freeze on corporate tax rates.  However, to the surprise of many observers, Horwath appeared to renege on what the Liberals assumed was a firm commitment by demanding further concessions from the government a few days prior to the budget vote.  Amidst threats of a summer election should the issue not be resolved, McGuinty and Horwath met again and settled on a concession of relaxing arbitration rules for the public sector, ensuring the NDP’s support.

On the other side of this event, the PC Party has remained relatively silent in their steadfast opposition of the budget.  Leader Tim Hudak has taken a lot of flak recently within the media for his party’s outright refusal to even consider discussing the document, with some journalists arguing that he has missed out on what they felt was a huge opportunity.  This is the first time under Dalton McGuinty that the Liberal party is in a minority situation, and has been forced by necessity to give in to the opposition’s demands – or face a non-confidence vote and possible election.  Some contend that this was the perfect opportunity for Hudak to use his position of relative strength to work with the government in support of the budget, in exchange for concessions which might have included tougher austerity measures.  These critics argue that instead, the PC’s have curiously been content to sit back and watch the other two parties govern without them, implementing several policies in the process which directly contradict the conservative economic ideology (see higher taxes).   The NDP on the other hand, while taking some criticism from the media for reneging on their initial commitment, have also been lauded for forcing the government‘s hand and getting their own policies included.

The next important milestone to measure political support for the three parties going forward is the upcoming by-election in Kitchener-Waterloo to fill the seat vacated by long-time Progressive Conservative MPP Elizabeth Witmer.   One of the most recent polls of public support has the Progressive Conservatives again with a slight lead over their rivals.  However, given polling results suggesting the same thing in the lead-up to the last provincial election, it remains to be seen whether or not that will lead to electoral success.  In fact, in recent weeks, some within the media have argued that the spat between McGuinty, Horwath, and Hudak around the budget has demonstrated once again that minority governments do not work.   It is possible that the Liberals ride this wave of minority discontent to a by-election win and gain the majority that they have so sorely missed during this budget fiasco.  Much like the Federal cabinet shuffle, this is a situation that will continue to unfold in the coming summer months, and one that will have a huge impact on the upcoming legislative season should the Liberals regain their majority.

While the tendency for most people during the summer is to relax, enjoy the weather, and have a cold beverage by the pool or lake, people with a vested interest in government should keep a close eye on both of these continuously changing parliamentary situations.   For parliamentarians of any party, the summer break is a break in name only, the action never ceases.  So to the businessperson I offer some parting advice, if I may:  Sit back, relax, and enjoy the sun; but, keep one eye on your beer, and another on the news – you never know what the summer may bring.