Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Premier Dalton McGuinty, and Mayor Rob Ford.  As the dust settles on the latest provincial election, the three levels of government affecting citizens of the GTA are presenting drastically differing legislative landscapes in terms of mood, stability, and predictability.  It is critical that businesses wishing to navigate within the political framework created by one or all of three of these legislatures keep tabs on them in the coming months.

No matter where you fall on the political spectrum, in business, predictability is a good thing. Federally, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have a stable majority, and it is virtually assured that we won’t be heading back to the polls until 2015.   Due to their majority status, we can also be reasonably certain that the Conservative legislative agenda will hold few, if any, surprises on a year-to-year basis.    Despite a high level of stability and predictability, not all parliamentarians are excited about this government’s direction. The omnibus crime bill, the end of political subsidies, the addition of 30 new seats in the House of Commons (with 15 going to Ontario), and the repeal of the long gun registry are all highly contested issues on which the opposition parties largely disagree with the Prime Minister. The NDP in particular are concerned about the redistribution of seats, due to the government’s choice to add only three new seats to Quebec, the province to which they largely owe their opposition status.    Despite the frustrations conveyed by opposition members, and barring any unforeseen scandal, Harper and the Conservatives are here to stay for the next four years.  The current level of stability, without the constant threat of an election, provides an excellent opportunity for business and industry to engage government on important matters in the medium-to-long term.  In an era of economic uncertainty, this has never been more important.

Provincially, Dalton McGuinty finished the election with a strong minority, generating some rumblings of uncertainty within the Ontario Legislative Assembly.  Unlike the strong upper-hand enjoyed by the Prime Minister, Dalton McGuinty’s mandate may end up being one of conciliation and appeasement if he wishes to maintain his hold on power for the next four years.  Due to the challenges inherent to a minority government, the fate of the upcoming parliament is now largely up to the NDP, who hold the balance of power.   Because of this, it is difficult to predict not only how long this government will last, but also what sort of legislation might be on the table.  It is likely that the Liberals will have to offer an olive branch of sorts to the NDP in the form of favourable legislation, similar to what David Peterson’s Liberal government did in the 1980s. However, just what that will be is anyone’s guess at this point.   Compounding this is the fact that the Liberals will be hard pressed by current economic realities to implement further austerity measures.  This could drastically impact any conciliatory legislation aimed at the NDP, who typically support the notion of government programs and spending over any sort of program cutbacks.    The mood of the provincial legislature could quickly turn into one of uncertainty coupled with both conciliation and hostility.  The relationship between Dalton McGuinty and Andrea Horwath seems to be cool at best at this point, and in particular, McGuinty’s relationship with Tim Hudak is predictably less than desirable. Adding further murkiness to the situation is the recent issue of Tory MPP Frank Klees’ consideration to run for the position of Speaker of the House.  Although Klees has since dropped out of the race, his decision to run in the first place caused some uncertainty amongst the Tory ranks, of which McGuinty and the Liberals are the prime benefactors. However, in terms of co-operation between the parties it is not all negative, as Andrea  Horwath and Tim Hudak have recently agreed to collaborate on a private members bill advocating for the elimination of the HST from home-heating bills,  one of the only shared planks from both party platforms.   Although this newfound ability to co-operate between the PC’s and the NDP is noteworthy in and of itself, it also begs the question: if the NDP and the Tories can co-operate on this legislation, can or will they find enough common ground to bring down the government and if so, when? All of this combines to provide a sharp contrast between the federal and provincial legislatures.   Where the landscape of the federal legislature is stable and predictable, the provincial legislature is volatile and relatively unclear.  Due to the difficulty in predicting what lies ahead, this is a developing situation that businesses should keep an eye on.

At the municipal level in Toronto, Rob Ford rode his campaign to ‘stop the gravy train’ to an 11.4% margin of victory, the largest in post-amalgamation history.   One would think that this would translate into a very strong mandate.  However, once budget cuts were put on the table, what seemed at the outset to be a strong mandate has turned into an extremely hotly contested debate, leaving Ford’s popularity plummeting in recent polls.  Despite the very raucous nature of City Hall at present, with fixed elections every four years, stability is inherent in the system.  Barring any unforeseen scandal, Rob Ford will be Mayor until 2014.  There is also a further measure of predictability that can be gleaned from the current situation.   While there is heavy infighting regarding where Ford’s budget cuts will come from, it is clear that due to the appetite for a reduced deficit amongst Torontonians, in one shape or another, the cuts are coming.  That being said, budget cuts, although often necessary, are never popular.  The mood at City Hall reflects this basic truth.  Although many councillors agree in principal with the cuts, no one wants to be the councillor who is responsible for, as an extreme example, the closure of Toronto’s libraries.  This has translated into an inherent desire by some councillors to distance themselves from Mayor Ford, Toronto’s whipping boy, the man carrying the metaphorical giant axe.  Although the climate at Toronto’s City Hall is much more predictable than that of the Provincial Legislature, just where these cuts will come from is still largely unknown.  With budget deliberations currently under way, a 2012 budget scheduled for later this month should provide a clearer indication as to where savings are being targeted.

Three levels of government, three differing moods and mandates, three highly interesting situations that prudence dictates must be watched.  Although it is difficult to say where each of these three levels of government will be in four years, it is essential that businesses and organizations impacted by government legislation employ due diligence in monitoring these legislatures closely.  Predictability and stability can be used to one’s advantage; while volatility and uncertainty can be managed by keeping one’s political eyes open, and ears to the ground.