Mon 10th Oct 2011
The results of the October 6th provincial election in Ontario will have an immediate impact on the future of the province. With a record low voter turnout of 48% (provincial average), Ontarians re-elected the Liberal party to a strong minority government, and Dalton McGuinty, to a rare third term as Premier.
The Liberals finished one seat shy of a majority at 53 (loss of 17 seats), while the Progressive
Conservatives, who were early favourites to win the election, ended up with a total of 37 seats (gain of 12 seats). The NDP picked up steam after a strong debate performance by leader Andrea Horwath, and gained 7 seats to finish with 17 in total. Despite the fact that the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty have retained power for a third consecutive term, the legislative landscape in Ontario is drastically different today than it was prior to the election.
What’s New
For the past eight years, the Liberals have held an unfettered majority, and have been able to easily pass any legislation that they desired. In a new minority government however, the balance of power in the legislature is now held by the NDP. While Dalton McGuinty has already rejected any notion of a coalition government, it is still entirely possible that a member of the NDP or PC Party crosses the floor and gives him the majority he needs to control the legislature. Should this not occur, look for the Liberals to make attempts at securing the NDP’s loyalty by offering conciliatory legislation. In the current edition of Ontario’s legislature, the NDP will have increasing input on what policies pass or die on the table, as well as in deciding when Ontarians will head back to the polls.
In addition to having a new balance of power in the legislature, there are also six cabinet positions which have been vacated due to retirements and election night losses. The vacated spots include several major cabinet positions such as: the Ministers of Agriculture, Trade, Education, and Revenue. Also vacant are the House Leader and Deputy House Leader positions, as well as the Speaker of the House – which some speculate will be awarded to a member of the NDP in a move to secure their support. Although it is unclear who will fill these positions, it will be important for businesses to keep track of these appointments in the coming weeks.
What to Expect
With many economic forecasters predicting the onset of a second global recession, businesses should expect a reduction in government spending and a leaner budget to try and fight the government debt and deficit. The new Liberal government will look to at the very least maintain current taxation levels, while the NDP will push for increased corporate taxes to ensure social program spending is not cut.
Since the NDP holds the balance of power, it is unclear whether or not this will be the compromise the Liberals must forge to maintain their hold on the legislature. Under a new minority government, businesses should remain vigilant. Uncertainty is the word of the day in Ontario, both economically, and politically.